System attack or just stupid terrorists?

Posted by Thom May Thu, 10 Aug 2006 08:03:00 GMT

The “foiled” terrorist attack looks suspiciously like an attack on the underlying system, rather than an actual attempt to blow planes up - it’s almost laughable that terrorists in this day and age could hope to get explosive devices onto planes in hand luggage.

If we decide that the terrorists aren’t stupid, the attack begins to look decidedly different. They’ve succeeded in causing absolute chaos in one of the busiest weekends in the british airline calendar, the effects of which will probably drag on for a few days. If you wanted to be really nasty, they’ve also caused a large number of people to be trapped in one place, and extremely vulnerable to attack. The BBC report says Heathrow Terminal 1 is “jam packed”.

I suspect that a terrorist organisation will look at something like this as relatively cheap, too - 18 peons arrested, sure, but we know they can afford the manpower and they’ve once again demonstrated that the air travel infrastructure our society is so reliant on is extremely fragile and vulnerable.

Posted in punditry | 10 comments | Tags air, terrorist, travel | atom

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Mary
28 minutes later:

But as far as I can tell, proving that airport security sucks/is easily scared/can screw your weekend right up doesn't scare people in the way that terrorists like, so getting a lot of people stuck in Heathrow just isn't an effective terrorist operation. Nor is demonstrating to authorities how vulnerable they are. Pen testing does not a successful terrorist operation make, because only the nerds and suits get scared. A successful terrorist operation scares everyone: bleeding people and funerals on page 1. So I doubt this was what they were after, unless: it is, as you suggest, a way to trap a lot of people in Heathrow pending some further action; or a distraction from some other event currently unfolding. Either is possible. But a bloodless demonstration of security holes is too tame.
Mary
29 minutes later:

Also, I do know how to use paragraph breaks, it just doesn't seem that your software knows that I'm doing it!
Orc65
42 minutes later:

Think tactically Mary, what did these terrorists? just create for themselves for the loss of a few, probably really dumb converts. ........ "Large Number of People, Trapped in one place" ....
Orc65
43 minutes later:

Dang, that'll teach me to skim.....:)
Mary
about 1 hour later:

Orc65: yes, re-read the second last sentence of my first comment, I'm aware of that. That would be effective, if they take advantage of it. But Thom seems to think that a bloodless demonstration of weakness is effective, and I disagree.
James
about 1 hour later:

Or, this is a massive over-reaction by the UK authorities. Just listen to Dr John Reid (Home Secretary) gravely intone to camera that we are facing a 'critical' danger. -After- we arrest 18 people?
To camera, again: 'we ask people to be extremely cautious'. About what? Suicide bombers? People with hand luggage?
Bruce Schneir uses the term 'security theatre'. This the government's terror theatre. I have no doubt that there was a plot. But telling people, 'Be very, very afraid, but please carry on as normal' is just doing the plotters' jobs for them.
We need to more sanguine about the level of threat the face. Two days ago John Reid said the Uk faces the "most sustained period of serious threat since the end of the Second World War." Really? So the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and the 10,000 nukes pointed at us were just temporary inconveniences?
It used to make me sad. Now it makes me angry.
Thom
about 9 hours later:

Mary: I don't think it's necessarily fear per se as much as disruption and inconvenience. This has caused a *huge* amount of people to delay or cancel their summer holidays and so on, not to mention business travel.
Erikd
about 14 hours later:

I don't think this was a system attack.

Here in .AU we're hearing of twice as many arrests as planes planes under threat and we're hearing of flamible liquids.

Astrolite is a two part liquid explosive. Its possible that the terrorists had two people per plane, each carrying one part of the explosive with plans to mix it on board. Obviously, this is just speculation.
paul
about 19 hours later:

I think the two possibilities listed in the title are rather limited. I think we likely have a serious attack which has hopefully been prevented in it's entirety.

Naturally any response to terrorist activity will give terrorists some information about how you respond. I am sure dodgy people are seeing the crowds at airports and thinking the same thing you and I are. I hope the "authorities" are seeing it too and can adjust future plans accordingly. In the mean time the advice to "be extremely cautious" seems rather reasonable. Even if this event has revealed inadequacies in the response that doesn't mean it was the terrorists intent just to test the system, it's just a natural effect of the system swinging into action (18 people sounds like a lot for a test).

I don't think they will think that 'losing' an 18 person operation will be relatively 'cheap' for the terrorists. Although there is more than enough scaremongouring I suspect the capabilities of terrorists are in reality rather limited. In terms of manpower there aren't that many people willing to blow themselves up and capable of doing so and finding new people means risk. These plots seem to take a large amount of time and coordination to plan and carry off. Terrorists do not seem capable of reaching out and getting 'us' at will. As such I think they will feel each failure acutely.
SEO
9 days later:

Hmm, intressting. I don't think too this was a system attack.

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